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"Golden nine" under the expectation of "big risk": the market ready goods hit "time difference", textile peak season ahead of time or just a false move!

The situation of the above two traders has formed a sharp contrast, but it really reflects the situation of the market. According to the survey of China silk capital network, the current market presents polarization, and the contrast is large. The order volume of the whole market is still poor, but some trading enterprises have improved their orders, and there are not a few batch orders, and even some enterprises ship in full containers one after another. However, some enterprises still stay in the stage of proofing without real order, and even affected by the traditional off-season, the situation of receiving orders is even worse.

Affected by the epidemic situation in the first half of the year, the global economic environment was weak, and the living conditions of textile enterprises were much more difficult than in previous years. Now most of the enterprises have passed the dark moment, and the domestic and foreign markets have improved, which has played a certain role in boosting the market. But we can't relax too much. The sustainability of this wave of market is unknown. Whether the "golden nine silver ten" can come as scheduled is also an unknown number. Xiaobian heard that the market has improved recently. One of the reasons is that textile workers overdraw the market. Some cloth owners choose to advance the time of goods preparation and make a "time difference" in order to reduce production costs. This wave of operation is like hoarding goods. If there are risks, boss BU should be cautious.

June to August are recognized as the off-season in the textile market, and the reduction of unit volume is reasonable. For this year's already depressed market, there are cloth owners expect the off-season will be even lighter.

A person in charge of a foreign trade enterprise said that orders were mainly exported to Western Europe. During the first half of the year and even during the severe epidemic period, orders were not greatly affected. There were orders continuously, but they began to decrease from July, and no orders were received in August, mainly affected by the off-season. At present, proofing has not started, it can be said that it is in hibernation stage, and it is expected to recover at the end of August.

Therefore, some market participants are pessimistic about the future market forecast and think that the traditional peak season may not be prosperous. Although the unit volume is recovering at present, the total volume is not very large. In addition, some domestic market goods come and go quickly, so it is difficult to have long-term sustainability. In addition, the overseas epidemic situation has not subsided, the market lacks confidence, and the weaving enterprises have accelerated the operation of reducing the burden and production.

01

Clothing demand is expected to increase

On the one hand, naturally driven by the global economic environment, economic recovery will largely determine the demand for clothing. "Black swan" new crown epidemic is still continuing, even in some areas is aggravating, which will be detrimental to the economic recovery in the second half of the year. In addition, the recovery of global orders is not very optimistic. According to the import and export data of foreign textile countries, the recovery of orders in the second half of the year is still weak, and the level before the epidemic can be recovered at least next year. Therefore, the clothing demand in the second half of the year will still shrink.

Vinate, a Vietnamese textile group, predicts that Vietnam's textile exports will continue to show a downward trend in the second half of 2020, with a drop rate of 14-18%. As a result, the total textile exports in 2020 may reach US $32.75 billion, 16% lower than that in 2019.

According to jumnong, chairman of Thailand's National Textile Industry Federation, the export of Thailand's textile and garment industry has dropped by 17% and the import has dropped by 19%.

According to the Textile Manufacturers Association of Bangladesh, more than 50% of the cloth sales orders in Bangladesh have been completed by July, and 75% are expected to be completed by September, and the export will return to the level before the epidemic in January next year.

02

Textile people are confused about the future

On the other hand, some details of the market reveal that the market in the second half of the year is confused, and it is difficult to improve. At present, it is in the middle of August. According to the experience of receiving orders in previous years, orders for the second half of the year will be launched at the end of August, and centralized orders will be placed in September and October. In mid August, preparations for placing orders have already begun, but there is no news at all.

Boss Bu reported that he was discussing orders for the second half of the year with his customers at this time in the past year, but now the orders in the second half of the year are not even visible, and the customers are very confused and don't know how to deal with the second half of the year. There is no news about the list, even the color, pattern and meter number. Everything is unknown.

For the second half of the market, whether the cloth boss or the buyer are very confused, so no matter whether the peak season can come, cloth boss should be well prepared. Don't be confused by the recent improvement in the market. It is necessary to stop preparing goods in advance. This year's textile enterprises, such as walking on thin ice, take a wrong step may be doomed.

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