In May, the order will improve slightly, and the domestic market or competition will be fierce
In May, the order will improve slightly, and the domestic market or competition will be fierce
After May 1st, the yarn market was not as bad as expected. Compared with the completely abandoned "gold three silver four", this week's stable domestic demand orders and a small number of "broken" foreign trade orders brought a glimmer of hope to the market. As of May 14, the average price of c32s in China was 18740 yuan / ton, down only 35 yuan / ton from last week.
Cotton raw materials, compared with the recent continuous decline in cotton yarn prices, cotton prices rose steadily. Due to the off-season in May and June, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises is generally at a high level. However, this year is different. The lack of downstream orders and the small increase in cotton prices in recent years have made textile enterprises cautious in purchasing raw materials and keep buying as they use.
After May 1, the cotton yarn market unexpectedly accelerated the delivery, although the volume is still small, but let the textile enterprises have a breathing opportunity. It is reported that the main participants in this trading are traders. Currently, cotton yarn prices are at a low level, and traders have less stock in the early stage. In addition, with the gradual unsealing of European and American countries in the near future, speculation has increased. At present, the inventory of textile enterprises has declined, but the inventory of textile enterprises is still at a high level in the past three years, and the subsequent increase probability is still very large. As of the 14th, China's yarn inventory index closed at 29.3 days. In terms of start-up, due to the slightly better trading atmosphere, the recent start-up also rose slightly. As of the 14th, China's yarn start-up load index closed at 50.1%, but significantly lower than the 63% in the same period last year.
In the aspect of downstream textile factories, recently, there are some signs of increase in the part of grey cloth. However, after investigation, most orders with large volume are still caused by the purchase and hoarding of traders. According to a person in charge of a conventional weaving enterprise, there are often many middlemen who come to inquire recently. They want to buy a large number of grey fabrics, and they carry several carts of goods every day. They press the price to the death, but the raw materials are rising all the time, and grey cloth is also priced one day, so it is impossible to get the same low price as before. And some manufacturers, not only did not raise the price because of the rise of raw materials, but also sold goods at a low price. This is mainly because the stock of most varieties of grey cloth is still high, and the market demand for grey cloth has not changed much. In the face of such a dilemma, price increase is not the key point, and de stocking is the first task. Therefore, when the price of raw materials rises and the market confidence recovers, selling will achieve better destocking effect.
However, the stock of textile factories is not uniform and obviously differentiated. Some enterprises have only 100000 meters of grey cloth in stock, or even no; others have 50 days or even 60 days of production. This difference is mainly due to different order sources. Most of the enterprises with less grey cloth inventory are due to the large number of domestic trade orders they are making at present, which consumes most of the inventory; the enterprises that also rely entirely on foreign trade orders, at this time, the demand is not strong, and the shortage of grey cloth leads to large inventory pressure.
Imported yarn this week "Crazy" fell, directly the early inside and outside yarn nearly 1000 yuan difference fell back. As of May 14, the spot price of FCY index c32s was 18725 yuan / ton, down 728 yuan / ton compared with the same period last week. Among them, India's analysis agency reported that although India's domestic cotton prices are too low to bring benefits to the production of mills, the blockade and shutdown caused by the epidemic will severely frustrate downstream consumer demand in the next six months. In recent years, Indian cotton yarn manufacturers have faced a series of difficulties, including the decline of export and domestic demand, the fluctuation of cotton price, etc. cotton yarn export has been greatly impacted, mainly due to the reduction of Chinese demand. Now, there are two problems for Indian spinning factories to purchase domestic cotton. One is the shortage of liquidity. The other is the collapse of domestic economy in April after the closure of India.
Recently, Spain, Italy, India and other countries have temporarily relaxed various restrictions and opened some enterprises, so some foreign trade orders have also started. Due to the serious epidemic situation abroad, the difficulty of returning to work is greater than that at home, and the speed of recovery is far less than that at home, so there are not many orders transmitted to the domestic fabric market, which will take time. According to the first-line market research, most of the foreign trade orders received by the fabric enterprises are from Russia, Japan, South Korea and other countries. However, the situation of export to the EU is still relatively cold. On the one hand, the main countries in Europe to lift the ban are the Nordic countries, which do not have high demand for China's textile clothing; on the other hand, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and other heavily affected areas are only partially and periodically unlocked, step by step, worried about the recurrence of the new crown epidemic, so the recovery of catering, clothing and other retail industries is relatively slow.
However, compared with the "dawn" of other countries, China US relations continue to deteriorate, failing to "throw the pot" to China in a row; the number of confirmed cases and deaths "remains the first"; when the economy is in a state of semi-stop, trump is likely to start a trade war again. According to the data of textile and clothing imports from the United States in March 2020, clothing imports from China in that month amounted to 919 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 49.62%, directly pulling China down from the position of the first import source country. Due to the uncertainty of China US relations in the second half of 2020 and President Trump's eight lies a day, if enterprises continue to "expect" the United States to place orders, there may be great risks. Of course, entrepreneurs are not idiots. From the perspective of research, many textile and clothing enterprises take "domestic trade" as a means of compensation for the poor foreign orders, so it can be predicted that the domestic market competition will be very fierce in the next quarter