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"Gold nine silver ten" comes ahead of time, textile industry releases warming signal! Why is yarn trading light?

The prosperity monitoring results of circulation branch of China Textile Federation show that in July 2020, the prosperity index of national textile and garment professional market managers was 48.98, up 2.15 percentage points from 46.83 in June; the prosperity index of merchants in professional market was 49.03, 0.70 percentage points higher than 48.33 in June. In July, the business climate index picked up compared with June.

Although July is still the standard off-season for professional markets, compared with June, the market situation has improved to a certain extent, and various important indexes have also shown an overall warming trend.

1. Domestic and foreign trade market recovered

Fabric orders increase

It is understood that in recent days, the situation of some trading enterprises receiving orders has improved, and the frequency of purchasing orders has increased. Orders are also placed in autumn and winter fabric based, domestic market demand is warming. And foreign trade, also has a certain improvement, the same is due to the seasonal demand for fabrics in autumn and winter, so export orders in some regions increased.

A person in charge of a domestic sales enterprise told Xiaobian: "although the overall market is not ideal this year, it has little impact on our small company, and there are still some lists to do. Recently, the autumn and winter fabrics in the domestic market began to be produced, and our company mainly focuses on autumn and winter fabrics. Therefore, we have received several orders in recent days, and the unit quantity has increased from several thousand meters to tens of thousands meters. "

Autumn and winter fabrics have a large amount of products to conventional polyester taff, Nisi spinning, T800, imitation memory and so on. However, in the grey fabric market, such products have little change, for weaving enterprises, there is no sense of market recovery.

2. The production and sales of raw materials turn better

Inventory pressure shifts to downstream

The raw material market also showed some performance. In addition to the low-end production and sales of polyester manufacturers, the average rise from 8-5% to the end of 100% is the best.

According to the monitoring data of China silk capital network, as of July 31, the overall inventory of polyester market was concentrated in 30-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory was up to 10-15 days, FDY inventory was around 21-28 days, and DTY inventory was about 29-39 days.

According to an industry source, some large factories have said that they may reduce the preferential policies or even cancel the promotion in the later stage, which to a certain extent also drives the mentality of bargain hunting in the downstream market.

3 yarn market transaction light

The weak is falling

At present, the characteristics of the off-season are more obvious, textile enterprises are still difficult to receive orders, and the business of textile enterprises is bleak. The most prominent performance is: first, the sales price of yarn has dropped, the profit space has been gradually compressed, and many textile mills have been in deficit operation; second, it is more and more difficult for the yarn to be sold, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the enterprise's capital pressure is prominent. Facing the current difficulties, textile enterprises have to adopt the "reduction" In order to maintain the normal operation of the enterprise, cost reduction means to take appropriate ways to purchase raw materials to reduce the cost of raw materials.

Lack of obvious positive support at the cost side, most of the pure polyester yarn market prices remain stable, a few yarn enterprises are fair in foreign trade, and offer is increased in a narrow range tentatively. Most enterprises' offer remains stable, the real document volume is mainly discussed, the source of goods sold at low prices has not converged for the time being, the market transaction price range is expanding, the downstream demand continues to weaken, the operating rate of weaving enterprises is gradually declining, and pure polyester yarn is weak in the short term It's hard to change. The real trading atmosphere of renmian yarn market is still weak. Under the pressure of loss, many regional vortex spinning manufacturers intend to increase their prices, but the specific new price is not clear. The downstream market of Renmin cotton is not good, and yarn procurement is still cautious. Some operators are still bearish on future orders. It is expected that the price of renmian yarn will maintain a low finishing trend in the near future. Polyester and cotton yarn market remains weak, light trading, just need to improve the shrinkage, traders are low-cost replenishment, the price is more than the spinning cost, and yarn factory bidding behavior, downstream stock more cautious, with inventory, capital pressure, polyester and cotton yarn market price will remain stable and weak.

The market is ahead of schedule. I don't know if it's good or bad

Looking back on the past years, most of the autumn and winter fabrics began to be released in late August until the explosive release in September, which is commonly known as "gold nine silver ten". The end of July this year ushered in the market of autumn and winter fabrics, which may indicate the early arrival of this year's "gold nine silver ten".

For the continuity of this wave of autumn and winter fabric market, Xiaobian thinks it can be maintained until the end of August. Although the whole domestic market did not make a breakthrough, many suppliers began to proofing frequently and substantial orders increased. The foreign trade market also gradually adapted to the changes in the international situation, and began to improve, especially the arrival of autumn and winter fabric orders, gradually opened the situation, and sales began to improve.

It can be seen that this wave of market has driven manufacturers' enthusiasm for production. If the future market continues to improve, then the market inventory will slowly decline. If this wave of market is only temporary, it is likely to aggravate the overcapacity in August.

Generally speaking, today's textile market is standing at the crossroads. Whether the market is getting better to the left or weakening to the right is not predictable. In the current situation of coexistence of multiple spaces, textile enterprises need to reasonably arrange funds and inventory according to their own orders.

I hope the market is really better, most of the textile enterprises have been hit hard this year. This is especially true of our polyester yarn.