The second half of China's economy is worth looking forward to
The second half of China's economy is worth looking forward to
Not long ago, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the update of the world economic outlook report, it believed that the world economy was facing the worst recession since the great depression in the 1930s. "China is the only major economy expected to achieve positive growth in 2020," the IMF said This judgment has aroused great concern for China's economic trend at home and abroad.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia is facing a sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia, and China has laid a solid foundation for resuming work and resuming production and economic and social recovery, according to many analysts. At the same time, a series of targeted "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" as well as policies and measures related to deepening reform and expanding opening up are also providing strong support for China's economy to regain its positive momentum of stability and progress. Therefore, whether in the short term or in the long run, the "second half" of China's economy is worth looking forward to.
Important indicators frequent positive signals
Why can China's economy bring people confidence again? Positive changes in many important data are evidence.
For example, in May, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in China reached 582.34 billion yuan, which decreased by 4.3% in April to an increase of 6.0%; for example, in May, the power consumption of the whole society was 592.6 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while the national power generation was growing at a faster speed. In the first ten days of June, the national full caliber power generation increased by 9.1% year-on-year; in June, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 50.9%, Both sides of supply and demand continued to pick up, and the non manufacturing business activity index was 54.4%, rebounding for four consecutive months
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, pointed out in an interview with our reporter that recently, important indicators of China's economy have shown positive signals frequently, which fully reflects China's great achievements in comprehensively promoting epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia is the most important factor that affects the economic and social functioning. China has a large scale market, abundant human resources and strong guarantee conditions. In the face of the epidemic, China has taken timely and decisive prevention and control measures to prevent and control the epidemic in a scientific way and return to work and production in an orderly manner. At the same time, China has strengthened the measures of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" in production, distribution, exchange and consumption, thus laying the foundation for economic recovery in the first half of the year. " Zhang Liqun said.
Sergei lukonen, an economist at the Institute of world economy and international relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicts that although the indicators are not high, China will still be the fastest growing country among the major economies this year, while East Asia and the Asia Pacific region will also be the fastest growing regions in the world.
Steady policy and good expectation
Since this year, a series of effective policies have had a significant positive impact on China's economy.
China's novel coronavirus pneumonia Association and the State Council Poverty Alleviation Office have launched measures to further expand the supporting Microfinance Support period for poverty alleviation, extend the repayment period of poverty alleviation loans affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and in the field of foreign trade enterprises, the office of the State Council issued the "Implementation Opinions on supporting export products to domestic sales", and adopted ten specific measures in four aspects. In terms of financial support, this year, the central government supported local governments in implementing measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises, individual businesses and people in need who are most affected by the epidemic, strengthen infrastructure construction such as public health, and spend money related to epidemic prevention
Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that real estate investment and infrastructure investment took the lead in the second quarter, and consumption will also show more obvious compensation from the third quarter, which is expected to achieve positive growth in the whole year. Therefore, under the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promoting economic growth will be driven by consumption and investment.
"On the investment side, under the counter cyclical policy, infrastructure construction has turned positive year-on-year in a month, and the construction of new infrastructure has been steadily promoted; on the consumer side, retail sales of Enterprises above the quota have been significantly restored to close to the growth level of the same period last year, and online retail continues to grow at a high speed. Looking forward to the second half of the year, we expect that personal consumption, government investment and enterprise investment will continue to pick up in the context of fiscal easing and credit expansion. " Star Stone Investment General Manager Yang Ling said.
Positive transformation and higher quality of development
The "second half" of China's economy is worth looking forward to, not only in economic figures, but also in the transformation of growth momentum and the improvement of development quality.
"With the rapid development of e-commerce and e-commerce, e-commerce and e-commerce will continue to grow rapidly, with the rapid development of e-learning, e-commerce, and e-commerce." Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said in an analysis of the new economic momentum.
At present, all walks of life have received a great impact, I hope there will be a big turn in the second half of the year, especially in our textile yarn industry.